Mozambique

What will happen now?

The statement from the military was thin on detail. It tried to do what coup statements do: calm things down and promise a return to normal life. How and when that will be remains vague. In some ways, this was a clash between generations: the liberation generation, which claims its source of authority and legitimacy from the liberation struggle and a generation that challenged this claim. The liberation generation has triumphed by the law of the gun, demonstrating once again the enduring nature of the liberation war narrative in Zimbabwean politics. It served Mugabe once, and now it is serving his subordinates. It suggests that the liberation generation will monopolise power for a long time to come, at least for as long as they live, and will not hesitate to use the gun to defend that monopoly on power.

In the immediate term, it will be a glorious return for Mnangagwa after what seemed to be an ignominious exit. After what seemed to be the end of a long career, he is now on course to fulfil his destiny and lead Zimbabwe. He was for so long the proverbial water-carrier for Mugabe. Now though he will have the liberty to choose his own water-carriers. Yet they too must know that like Mugabe, they have created a monster that could haunt them in future. History shows that once the military has tasted power, it will develop an appetite for more of the same in future. The current generals will vacate office to assume political power, but from now on they must always watch their backs because they have shown their subordinates the possibilities that the gun avails.

As for G40, their fortunes have dipped in dramatic fashion. There were lessons from history, such as the fate that befell Jiang Qing, the wife of Chairman Mao and her allies known as the Gang of Four. The parallels are uncanny. They will now be at the mercy of the new military authorities. Grace Mugabe may yet be spared, but only out of respect for Mugabe. As for Mnangagwa, to extend the Chinese comparison, could he be the Deng of Zimbabwe who, after being thrown out of government once, returned after the demise of Mao and ushered a new era for the country? That remains to be seen but he seems to have the favour of both China and the West and that might usher a restoration in broken relations.

Zimbabwe is due to hold elections next year. That may now be postponed as the country finds its feet after this radical disturbance to the constitutional order. Meanwhile, some “transitional authority” made up of diverse elements, including the opposition – ostensibly to fix and take the country forward - may be patched up to run the country, with the promise to prepare for democratic elections in the near future.

The BSR did say some weeks ago that if the succession race were a boxing match, Lacoste were so far behind on points that they needed a knockout blow. This, they seem to have delivered, albeit in the very dying moments. It’s a new chapter for Zimbabwe, which for the first time must now prepare for life without Mugabe at the helm. He now sits on the throne but without power. It is unlikely he will stay there for much longer. It’s truly the end of an era.

Source:
Wamagaisa
wamagaisa@gmail.com